U.S. Primaries and the Netherlands

June 8th is primary day in many states across the USA. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln faces Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter in a runoff because a majority eluded both of them for the Democratic nomination back in mid-May. Halter has the backing of organized labor, and has momentum. I expect him to win.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid does not face internal opposition within his party for the nomination, but two-party preferred polling shows he is neck and neck with his Republican challengers for the November general. I expect Sharron Angle, the Tea Party favorite, will win tonight.

Interestingly enough, Jerry Brown seems to be the nominee-in-waiting for the Democratic Party for governor of California. He served as governor from 1975 to 1983 and ran for president three times, first in 1976 and again in 1980 against Carter, and in 1992 against Clinton. His Republican challenger seems to be former eBay CEO Meg Whitman.

In the U.S. Senator from California election, Boxer will be renominated by the Democrats and Carly Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard CEO, will snag the Republican nomination. Polling for November shows Boxer with a slight lead, though it's still a competitive race.

South Carolina's Republican primary for Governor is a madhouse with four candidates running, though Nikki Haley, a State Rep, has the coveted blessings of both Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney. She will take the nomination as well as the governor's mansion in the fall.

In Iowa, a gubernatorial race not unlike that in California is taking place. Chet Culver, governor since 2007, faces an old hand: Terry Branstad, who originally served as Iowa's governor from 1983 to 1999. Branstad is widely expected to win both the Republican nomination and general election this fall.

Beyond the primary races in the United States, the Netherlands is gearing up for a general election of their own on Wednesday, June 9. I spoke about this at length back a month ago in the post "The End of Harry Potter?" from May 9. According to polls, the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, or VVD, has the lead at around 33 to 36 seats. I predict this lead will make Mark Rutte the next Dutch Prime Minister. The Dutch Labor Party, or PvdA, will take second place at around 30 seats, while the current majority party, Prime Minister Jan Balkenende's Christian Democratic Appeal, is expected to fall to third place for the first time since 2002, with around 25 seats.

The new coalition will end up being led by the VVD, with partners PvdA, D66, and, if this match-up does not bring the seat total to at least 76, then chances are the Greens could be asked to participate as well.