It will be no surprise when tonight election authorities deem Juan Manuel Santos of Party of the U and Antanas Mockus of the Green Party have each taken enough votes to propel them to the runoff election on June 20. Neither will have gained a majority, as no one expects them to do so.
What will be surprising I think is the inaccuracy of polling considering Santos' resurgence in the polls since mid-May. Current polls suggest he will net 34% of the vote, though I think this underestimates the percentage by about three to ten percent. Mockus, meanwhile, polls at 32%, and this might also be a bit of a deflated percentage, especially considering the tactical voting that undoubtedly will take place, what with a field of six candidates, with only two of them polling in double-digit territory. I expect Mockus to gain somewhere between two and nine percent more than his poll numbers state.
The losers are the ones we've been expecting would lose since Mockus' stellar rise in early April. These include those from the new smaller parties, like Petro of the Alternative Democratic Pole, and Vargas of Radical Change. The traditionally dominant parties of Colombia, the Liberals and the Conservatives, will have candidates who likewise are unable to break beyond single digit percentages.
Colombia Reports states that election officials to announce the results of the vote on Sunday night.
My final predictions:
Santos 43%
Mockus 39%
Petro 6%
Sanin 5%
Vargas 4%
Pardo 3%
I think Mockus might actually get lower numbers than expected, just like the Lib Dems. I think people might freak out in the voting booth about voting for someone who isn't pushing security.
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