The end of Harry Potter?

No, I'm not talking about the movie franchise soon to be complete, but about Mr. Jan Peter Balkenende of the Netherlands, who has served as Prime Minister from July 22, 2002 and whose service may soon be coming to an end. He also happens to resemble the titular character of the fantasy series, as noted by some such as the Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs back in 2005.

Balkenende has led four different cabinets in his eight year tenure and has secured the most seats for his Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) in four consecutive elections. Balkenende I came about when the electorate turned sharply away from Wim Kok's "purple coalition" of the social democratic Dutch Labour Party (PvdA), the conservative liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the progressive liberal Democrats 66 (D66). Many attributed this swing to Pim Fortuyn nationalistic views on foreign (read Muslim) influences in the Netherlands and Fortuyn's subsequent death at the hands of an assassin nine days before the election, which in turn brought a huge sympathy vote to the Pim Fortuyn List (LPF). Balkenende's coaltion of CDA-LPF-VVD was highly unstable from the beginning due to severe conflicts both inside and outside the LPF. It fell and new elections were held in January 2003.

The LPF was decimated in the vote, and though Balkenende attempted to form a coalition with the second largest party, PvdA, these discussions went nowhere and he therefore formed a liberal-conservative coalition with the VVD and D66.

When that coalition dissolved, another election was held in November 2006, resulting in center-right VVD and D66 losing a significant amount of their seats. The PvdA and smaller CU allied with the CDA to form Balkenende's fourth cabinet.

In February this year, Labour (PvdA) pulled out of government when no progress could be made on whether or not to keep Dutch troops in Afghanistan. This triggered an election set for Wednesday, June 9, 2010.

There is still one month to go from today's date. Polling shows a large increase in the number of seats since the previous election for Gert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV), which has adopted a number of reactionary policies like holding suspects without trial, forced integration of immigrants into Dutch society, and Euroscepticism. The other parties see the PVV as being on the hard right of the spectrum and as being a single issue party.

So far, the conservative liberal VVD seems to be in a neck and neck battle for first place with Labour, at 33 seats each. CDA is at third place with 27 seats. Wilders' PVV is at 17, D66 sits at 11, and Christian Union and Green Left are tied with 10 each.

Based on the advice of my Dutch friend, Kevin, it is my belief that VVD leader Mark Rutte is going to replace Balkenende as Prime Minister after this election. Dutch cabinets tend to composed of three constituent parties that are able to command the confidence of a majority in Parliament. This means that out of 150 seats, a typical Dutch government will have half+1 for a majority: at least 76.

Given these poll results, the seats are quite evenly divided, making a cabinet formation of two larger parties and one smaller party difficult. Should VVD become the main party, instincts and history suggest that they would be in alliance with D66, and possibly CDA to form a center-right coalition. But this only takes the coalition to 71 seats, five short of a majority. As of now, this combination doesn't look likely.

What are some other likelihoods? A purple coalition has worked in the past and could work again. Should VVD and PvdA attain the same number of seats and tie for first place, logic suggests the two would attempt to work with one another. Polls now show that this combination would have 66 seats. Including a smaller party like Green Left or D66 would bring the coalition to 76 and 77 seats, respectively, forming a majority.

With CDA facing the possibility of being ousted, the question now is in what direction would the Netherlands like to go--left, right, or somewhere in between?