Final Predictions for May 6

Based on all the polling floating about cyberspace, my final prediction of tomorrow's outcome in the UK general election is as follows:

Conservatives, 37% and some 280 seats in the Commons.
Labour, 29% and around 265 seats.
Liberal Democrats, 26% and somewhere near 80 seats.

Gordon Brown will halfheartedly attempt to remain in power by asking the Lib Dems to support his government. The Liberals will refuse, due to personal animosity between Clegg and Brown. Brown will resign. The Queen will ask the largest party, the Tories to form a government under David Cameron. Cameron will try to wield power as a minority government with help from the Ulster Unionists and Democratic Unionists, both small-c conservative parties from Northern Ireland. He will ask for limited support from the Lib Dems only whenever absolutely necessary (which might be never). Due to instability, Cameron will ask for another general election within eighteen months' time, which should place it at or before November 10, 2011.

I purposefully went with higher percentages than average for the Tories and Labour due to my feeling that support for the Lib Dems is overstated due to "Shy Labour" and a minimal effect of "Shy Tory." Hopefully I'm wrong and the Lib Dems manage a popular vote just above Labour. That would make bringing Labour around to the notion of proportional representation that much easier.

And so will Gordon Brown's departure to be replaced by one of the Miliband brothers as the new leader. But that's another post for the future.

Voting begins in six hours. Sit tight.